How does the civilizational approach relate to the theory of changing models of world economic development? How productive is this approach in predicting key population parameters and country needs for fuel and energy resources, agricultural land and fresh water availability until 2100? Do the forecast scenarios based on each of these approaches confirm each other? To what extent can the results of global development change under the influence of external subjective factors, such as the inclusion of global governance mechanisms? Key words: long-term forecast of world development, development model, global governance, natural resources, world civilizations. The book by A. V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev "Civilizations in the XXI century: problems and prospects of development" [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012] and their articles published in No. 2 of the magazine "Vostok" in 2013, raise a number of issues in the literal sense of a planetary scale. We are talking about nothing less than the number of people who will inhabit the Earth in the near, medium and long term, their quality of life (resulting from the availability of necessary resources-fuel, food, water, clean air) and, finally, who and how these people will feel, - about the civilizational dimension of their existence. The strengths of the above-mentioned works of Russian Orientalists include the breadth of research coverage, careful econometric study of possible scenarios, concreteness and sufficient mathematical proof (within the framework of the assumptions made by the authors) of the published results, and in general - a constructive approach to the problem under study. The latter seems especially important to us, since not every predictive study, both domestic and foreign, contains a positive program or at least individual proposals for possible solutions to the problems and bottlenecks revealed in the course of the study. Most authors, unfortunately, limit themselves only to stating the existence of threats and ris ... Read more