Well, what can I say? Well, what can I say? That's how people work. Want to know, want to know, They want to know what will happen. From modern hits Introduction In the forms of concretization of the abstract concept of "foresight", it is advisable to separate two specific derived concepts:" prediction "and" forecasting", Both contain a third specific concept - "prediction" (the state of a phenomenon or process in the future). But in the first case, the prediction is unconditional, it is characterized by the verbs "will " or"will become". And in the second - purely conditionally, instrumentally: "it can be or become under certain conditions", on which the researcher's attention is focused. Typical examples of prediction (which usually goes by the name of prediction): who will win the election or in the match, what will be the dollar exchange rate, etc. By the way, it is "forecasts" of this type that only interest the customer so far, since other approaches are simply unknown to him. They are the focus of the work of almost all the "analysis and forecast centers" in our country, and almost all of them abroad. Such forecasts are evaluated "according to the degree of justifiability", which, in turn, is located on the scale: true - not true. However, more than 70 years ago, the works of V. A. Bazarov-Rudnev proposed a qualitatively different, alternative approach to the future. And about 40 years ago, independently of him, this approach was developed in the works of B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell and a number of other Western futurologists into the concept of" technological forecasting": not" what will happen", but"what can happen with the observed trends and what needs to be done to make the most desirable happen". In fact, this approach should be called problem-oriented, because in practice, extrapolating observed trends into the future always shows a picture of emerging problems, and optimizing these trends always boils down to identifying ways to solve them as efficiently ... Read more