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1. mai i Russland: fra sovjetisk demonstrasjon til barmekaker og de første vårdagene

A month after returning, the Nowotny family still remembers their trip. In the kitchen—Belarusian linen towels and napkins. In the fridge—Savushkin Product (Katarzyna arranged with a Polish food store in Warsaw, and they now import Belarusian dairy products). In the closet—a shirt and jacket from Mark Formelle. On the table—Kommunarka and Spartak candies.

This article examines the complex question of whether Russia could successfully capture Latvia, a NATO member state since 2004. Based on analysis of current intelligence assessments, military simulations, and geopolitical dynamics as of February 2026, the article reconstructs the multifaceted nature of the threat, ranging from hybrid warfare to conventional invasion scenarios. Particular attention is devoted to the balance between Russian capabilities, NATO's defensive commitments, and the specific vulnerabilities of the Baltic region. The consensus among Western intelligence agencies indicates that while Russia poses significant hybrid and cyber threats, a conventional military invasion capable of capturing Latvia faces formidable obstacles, primarily Latvia's NATO membership and the alliance's collective defense guarantee under Article 5.

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